This is the third assessment that EuroTempest has issued this season. It will be the final assessment for the winter. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM) 2017.
UK JFM 2017 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
- There is an indication of some consistency across the seasonal forecasts models considered towards above average temperatures for the UK JFM 2017.
- The climate signals also indicate that there is an increased probability of westerly air flow developing during the 3-months which would result in above average temperatures at times.
UK JFM 2017 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
- There is an indication of some consistency across the seasonal forecasts models considered towards around or above average precipitation for the UK JFM 2017.
- The climate signals indicate that there is an increased probability of westerly air flow developing during the 3-months which would result in an increased chance of above average precipitation.
The climate signals suggest that there could be a greater chance of a positive phase of the NAO for prolonged periods during JFM as well as ridges of high pressure developing to the south of the UK. A positive NAO tends to be associated with milder and wetter conditions. However, the areas of high pressure are likely to moderate this tendency, meaning that above-average 3-month UK-average temperature and precipitation is only slightly more likely than below-average.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below
Download EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast
The eight agencies considered are: UK Met Office (UKMO), The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Climate Forecast System (CFS), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Météo-France (Météo-France), South African Weather Services (SAWS), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and APEC Climate Center (APCC)
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