UK Seasonal Forecast for Jan, Feb and Mar 2017

This is the third assessment that EuroTempest has issued this season. It will be the final assessment for the winter. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM) 2017.

UK JFM 2017 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:

  • There is an indication of some consistency across the seasonal forecasts models considered towards above average temperatures for the UK JFM 2017.
  • The climate signals also indicate that there is an increased probability of westerly air flow developing during the 3-months which would result in above average temperatures at times.

UK JFM 2017 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:

  • There is an indication of some consistency across the seasonal forecasts models considered towards around or above average precipitation for the UK JFM 2017.
  • The climate signals indicate that there is an increased probability of westerly air flow developing during the 3-months which would result in an increased chance of above average precipitation.

Overview
The climate signals suggest that there could be a greater chance of a positive phase of the NAO for prolonged periods during JFM as well as ridges of high pressure developing to the south of the UK. A positive NAO tends to be associated with milder and wetter conditions. However, the areas of high pressure are likely to moderate this tendency, meaning that above-average 3-month UK-average temperature and precipitation is only slightly more likely than below-average.

To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below

Download EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast

The eight agencies considered are: UK Met Office (UKMO), The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Climate Forecast System (CFS), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Météo-France (Météo-France), South African Weather Services (SAWS), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and APEC Climate Center (APCC)

For more information please email nick.wood@eurotempest.com. And if you would like to subscribe to our free weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, weather news or product updates please update your preferences using the link below.

2017-10-12T13:48:53+00:00January 9th, 2017|