Tropical Storm Risk’s (TSR) early May seasonal forecast suggests that the Northwest Pacific typhoon activity for 2024 will be approximately 20% below the 1991-2020 average.
According to TSR’s predictions, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is expected to be 225, with 7 intense typhoons, 15 typhoons, and 25 tropical storms anticipated for the year.
These projections are based on the expectation of weak to moderate La Niña conditions during August to October 2024, which are known to suppress typhoon activity. However, TSR note significant uncertainties in these forecasts due to the unpredictable nature of ENSO developments and the inherent variability in seasonal typhoon activity.
Read the full report here.
This is the first of four Northwest Pacific seasonal forecasts published for 2024. Subscribe to receive updates on future forecasts and verifications.
TSR, delivered by EuroTempest, has been providing alerts and forecasts for the insurance, humanitarian, energy, finance and maritime sectors since 1998. Using proprietary algorithms, TSR produces global event-based datasets, of forecast and post-event footprints with unrivalled accuracy.
EuroTempest is the leading provider in Europe of weather risk management services. Our customers across the world include some of the largest (re)insurers, brokers and catastrophe modelling agencies. These companies use our services and data to get better prepared for events as they develop, and for improving their understanding of the weather risks they face.
For more information about TSR’s or EuroTempest’s services, please email neha.shah@eurotempest.com.