Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is forecasting a significantly more active-than-normal Northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2026. The latest outlook predicts tropical cyclone activity around 35% above the 1991–2020 climate norm, making 2026 one of the most active seasons forecast in recent years.
Above-Average Activity Expected
The Northwest Pacific typhoon season forecast predicts 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons, and 11 intense typhoons during 2026. TSR also forecasts an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 410, well above the long-term average of 303. ACE is a widely used measure of seasonal tropical cyclone activity because it accounts for the frequency, intensity, and duration of storms. A higher ACE value typically indicates a more energetic and impactful season.
Why Is Activity Expected To Be High?
The forecast is driven by the expected development of El Niño conditions during the second half of 2026. El Niño often shifts tropical cyclone formation eastwards across the Northwest Pacific, creating more favourable conditions for storm development and intensification. Forecast atmospheric circulation patterns are also expected to support above-average activity. The Northwest Pacific typhoon season forecast highlights an increased likelihood of both more storms and more intense typhoons than normal.
For a detailed breakdown of the forecast, methodology, and regional implications, click here to read the full TSR report.