EuroTempest has issued its second assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: November, December and January (NDJ). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
- Storms: Long range forecast models and climate signals suggest that there is slightly enhanced likelihood of stormier than average conditions across Scandinavia during the next three months. There are some indications of an enhanced likelihood of calmer than average conditions across the rest of northern Europe although significant and impactful storms have occurred here in similar circumstances in the past and as such, their possibility this season cannot be ruled out.
- Precipitation: Long range forecast models and climate signals suggest a slightly enhanced likelihood of above average precipitation totals across Scandinavia and of below average totals across the rest of northern Europe.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
There are some indications of a slightly increased likelihood of windstorm activity across Scandinavia as opposed to the rest of northern Europe for Nov 2022 to Jan 2023. Indications for the season are not conclusive as climate models and climate signals are currently providing conflicting indications or are not producing a strongly dominant signal in this regard. Seasonal forecast models are however consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe.
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