EuroTempest has issued its second assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: November, December and January (NDJ). With this assessment we are also including the results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. This analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently. Analysis of climate drivers during October of previous years has indicated that the winter of 2013/14 is an appropriate analogue for this year. This suggests that both the number of wind storms and the maximum storm severity index for this winter is unlikely to be below average. EuroTempest will be issuing a short report into the use of analogue years for forecasting likely storminess of the winter season ahead.
As with the October assessment, seasonal forecast models and climate signals suggest November-January is most likely to be milder and wetter than average across Scandinavia and drier than average across southern Europe.
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to be above average for northern Europe and Scandinavia and below average for southern Europe, especially towards the end of the period.
- Precipitation: Precipitation is most likely to be above average across northern Europe and Scandinavia and below average across southern Europe.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be around or milder than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
- Long-range models: Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest November-January will most likely be around or wetter than average across northern Europe and Scandinavia and drier than average across southern Europe.
- Climate Signals: Climate signals suggest there may be slightly more potential for milder, wetter and windier conditions across northern Europe and Scandinavia.
Weather models and some climate signals suggest that the next week or so will be characterised by conditions gradually turning drier and more settled across much of Europe. From mid to late November conditions are likely to be milder and wetter than average across much of northern Europe with drier and cooler conditions across southern Europe.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of European weather conditions, click on the link below:
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