EuroTempest has issued its final assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
The possibility of a significant windstorm within the coming months remains though there are few indications of a sustained period of windstorm activity during Jan to Mar 2022. More unsettled (wetter than average) conditions are more likely further to the north, particularly across Scandinavia. The chance of a spell of very cold weather across northern Europe within the first few months of the year remains but is diminishing.
- Storms: There are few indications that a sustained period of frequent and active low-pressure systems across northern Europe and Scandinavia is likely. However, for northern Europe especially, models and signals are providing no dominant signal or have opposing influences. The possibility of an impactful windstorm within the next few months remains although relatively settled conditions are likely for at least the next few weeks.
- Precipitation: Climate models generally suggest an increased likelihood of above average seasonal precipitation totals across Scandinavia and below average totals across southern Europe. Some (but not all) models also suggest an increased likelihood of drier than average conditions across northern Europe. Climate signals generally have neutral or opposing influences though there are some indications of a wetter than average season further to the north.
- Temperature: Seasonal forecast models are consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe. Climate signals indicate that the chance of a spell of very cold weather across northern Europe within the first few months of the year remains but is diminishing.
- Analogue Years: Years in the historical record in which climate signals were in a similar pattern to that currently prevailing produced some notable windstorms in the few first few months of the year.
Largely settled conditions are most likely across northern Europe and Scandinavia over the next few weeks but occurrences of wetter and more unsettled conditions are likely to continue across southern Europe. There are currently no strong signals indicating the likely development of particularly unsettled or impactful weather during the end of January and into the start of February. However, wet and windy conditions typical for the time of the year are possible at times, particularly further to the north.
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