EuroTempest has released its first European Seasonal Forecast for winter 2025, providing an early look at expected weather patterns for October – December (OND). This first update outlines the dominant climate signals and highlights what they may mean for conditions across Europe in the months ahead.

  • Northern Europe & Scandinavia – Early signals point to a slightly increased chance of wetter and windier conditions.

  • Southern Europe – Forecast models lean toward drier and more settled weather, with reduced storm activity.

  • Temperatures – Much of Europe is likely to experience above-average temperatures, although southern Europe shows mixed signals.

Climate Drivers

Current indicators suggest a borderline cold-neutral to weak La Niña setup, paired with an easterly QBO. Years with similar patterns typically show a north–south split: unsettled conditions in the north, calmer weather in the south.

These early signals help insurers and risk specialists anticipate potential seasonal hazards, particularly for windstorm and precipitation-related impacts in northern regions.

This is the first of four monthly updates, with the final forecast issued in January 2026.  Click to access the full OND25 report.