EuroTempest has issued its final assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
- Storms: Some climate signals and historical analogues suggest broadly average conditions for the time of year can be expected during January to March this year. This means that at least one notably impactful European weather event is more likely than none but is by no means guaranteed. However, the historical climate analogues to this month are not particularly close – there are no Decembers in the recent (40-year) historical record that match the phase that all three of the major climate indicators, (ENSO, QBO and Atlantic SSTs) were in at the end of this last December.
- Precipitation: Long range forecast models suggest a slightly enhanced likelihood of above average precipitation totals across Scandinavia and of below average precipitation totals across the rest of Europe.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
There are indications that stormy conditions can be expected for Europe at times during January, February and March despite a slightly enhanced likelihood of drier than average conditions in northern Europe (not including Scandinavia) overall across the three months. These indications are not conclusive as there are some conflicting indications, particularly in the climate signals, as well as few close historical analogues. Seasonal forecast models are however consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe.
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