EuroTempest has issued its fourth and final assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM). This assessment again includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently. Based on climate signals throughout December the most appropriate analogue for this coming winter is the winter of 2008/09. This suggests that both the number of windstorms and the maximum storm severity index for this winter is unlikely to be below average.
Seasonal forecast models and climate signals suggest January to March 2021 as a whole is most likely to be milder than average across the whole of Europe. A north south split for precipitation is indicated with Scandinavia most likely to be wetter than average and southern Europe drier than average.
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to increase and be above average for northern Europe and Scandinavia and below average for southern Europe, especially towards the end of the period.
- Precipitation: Precipitation is most likely to be above average across Scandinavia and below average across southern Europe. There is no clear consensus across the forecast models and climate signals for precipitation across northern Europe although above average precipitation is slightly more likely.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
- Climate Signals: The potential for milder, wetter and unsettled conditions across northern regions of Europe (including Scandinavia) is likely to increase in late January and early February.
There is currently little indication in the weather models and climate signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate during the next few weeks, especially across northern Europe. From late January into early February unsettled conditions are likely to become more favourable with milder and wetter conditions more likely across Scandinavia and much of northern Europe and drier and warmer conditions across southern Europe.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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