TSR raises its forecast and predicts North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 will see activity around 15% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.
Although there remains uncertainty at this time, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2025, and for cold-neutral ENSO conditions to be present through summer and autumn 2025.
Both factors are expected to have a moderate enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast has increased since the early July update due to a number of additional factors likely to be more favourable for hurricane activity through the season than previously thought.
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