Tropical Storm Risk’s (TSR) August seasonal forecast suggests that the Northwest Pacific typhoon activity for 2024 will be approximately 15% – 20% below the 1991-2020 average.
According to TSR’s predictions, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is expected to be 237, with 7 intense typhoons, 15 typhoons, and 25 tropical storms anticipated for the year.
TSR uses the strong link between the annual Northwest Pacific ACE index and August-September-October (ASO) ENSO combined with trade wind anomalies across the western tropical Pacific through June and July, activity to-date and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We anticipate all these factors to have a suppressing effect on NW Pacific typhoon activity in 2025, although some uncertainties remain.
Read the full report here.
This is the final of four Northwest Pacific seasonal forecasts published for 2025. Subscribe to receive updates on future forecasts and verifications.
TSR, delivered by EuroTempest, has been providing alerts and forecasts for the insurance, humanitarian, energy, finance and maritime sectors since 1998. Using proprietary algorithms, TSR produces global event-based datasets, of forecast and post-event footprints with unrivalled accuracy.
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