While 2026 began with one of the wettest January-February periods on record, this was followed by an exceptionally dry March and April, leaving soil moisture already falling across south-east England. EuroTempest’s first 2026 UK subsidence forecast suggests it is still too early to determine whether this year will develop into a major subsidence claims year, with the outcome heavily dependent on rainfall over the coming months.
The rainfall outlook points towards broadly normal conditions through May to July, although short dry spells remain entirely possible. Looking at analogue years, 2007 and 2021 share the closest rainfall pattern to 2026 so far and both went on to record relatively low subsidence claims after wetter summers. However, comparison years such as 2003 and 2025 demonstrate how prolonged summer dryness can quickly lead to claims surges.
With the long-term UK average sitting at around 17,000 subsidence claims annually, and historic surge years exceeding 50,000 claims, the 2026 UK subsidence forecast highlights why insurers and property professionals will be closely watching rainfall over the coming weeks.
Read the full report for EuroTempest’s complete analysis, comparison years and claims assessment.
This is the first of four Subsidence Risk Assessments published for 2024. Subscribe to our free ‘Seasonal Forecasts’ to receive monthly updates on future Subsidence Risk Assessments and European Seasonal Forecasts.
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