EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: September, October and November (SON) 2019.
The general indication from forecast models and current climate signals is that a relatively cool,dry and settled September to November is unlikely.
- Storms: Indications are that the frequency of storms moving into the UK from the North Atlantic will most likely be around or potentially above average during the three-month period.
- Precipitation: Precipitation totals will most likely be around or potentially higher than the long-term seasonal average.
- Temperature: Temperatures will most likely be warmer than the long-term seasonal average.
- Long-range Models: Numerical Weather Prediction models strongly favour above average temperatures and generally favour average to above average precipitation totals.
- Climate Signals: There are few dominant climate signals at present (e.g. ENSO is neutral) but the North Atlantic is relatively warm in the vicinity of the UK and the QBO is in a positive phase. This is consistent with a slightly increased chance of mild, wet and stormy weather.
Changeable conditions, with periods of unsettled weather interrupted by brief periods of drier and colder weather, are most likely to characterise the last few weeks of September and into October, especially across northern regions of the UK. These indications of periods of unsettled weather are consistent with the current westerly phase of the QBO and warm North Atlantic SSTs.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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