EuroTempest has issued its second assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: October, November and December (OND) 2019.
The general indication from forecast models and current climate signals is that a relatively cool,dry and settled October to December is unlikely.
- Storms: Indications are that the frequency of storms moving into the UK from the North Atlantic will most likely be around or above average during the three-month period.
- Precipitation: UK precipitation totals will most likely be around or higher than the long-term seasonal average.
- Temperature: UK temperatures will most likely be warmer than the long-term seasonal average.
- Long-range models: Numerical Weather Prediction models strongly favour above average temperatures and generally favour average to above average precipitation totals.
- Climate Signals: There are few dominant climate signals at present (e.g. ENSO is neutral) but the North Atlantic is relatively warm in the vicinity of the UK and the QBO and MJO are both in states consistent with a slightly increased chance of mild, wet and stormy weather.
Looking back to last month, the number of ‘windy days’ was marginally higher than would be expected for average September and this is consistent with last month’s seasonal forecast.
Looking forwards, changeable conditions, with periods of unsettled weather interrupted by brief periods of drier and colder weather, are set to continue into the last few weeks of October and into early November, especially across northern regions of the UK. These indications of periods of unsettled weather are consistent with warm North Atlantic SSTs, the current westerly phase of the QBO, and the phase of the MJO.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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