The general indication from forecast models and current climate signals is that a relatively mild and wet November-January is likely.
- Storms: Indications are that the frequency of storms moving into the UK from the North Atlantic will most likely be around or above average during the three-month period.
- Precipitation: UK precipitation totals will most likely be around or higher than the long-term seasonal average.
- Temperature: UK temperatures will most likely be warmer than the long-term seasonal average.
- Long-range models: Numerical Weather Prediction models strongly favour above average temperatures and generally favour above average precipitation totals.
- Climate Signals: There are few dominant climate signals at present (e.g. ENSO is neutral) but the North Atlantic is relatively warm in the vicinity of the UK and the QBO and Polar Vortex are both in states consistent with an increased chance of mild, wet and stormy weather.
Looking back to last month, the number of ‘windy days’ was similar to what would be expected for an average October.
Looking forwards the next few weeks are likely to be characterised by unsettled conditions. However, indications are that the AO will become increasingly negative over the next few weeks while the NAO is most likely to remain in a near neutral phase. This suggests an increasing chance that conditions could become more settled and colder towards the end of the next few weeks. For the remainder of November and into early December climate signals are weakly consistent with milder and wetter weather.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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