EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: November, December and January (NDJ) 2018-19. For the first time the report also includes an assessment of the likely storm frequency.
The winter season 2018-19 has started out in a similar fashion to last year, with a high frequency of named storms and EuroTempest alerts during October. However, in contrast to last year where the stormy start was followed by periods of calmer weather, this pattern has so far continued into the start of November.
Looking ahead, there is some consistency across current climate signals and seasonal forecast models towards the dominance of a westerly airflow pattern across the UK during NDJ 2018-19. As a result:
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is likely to be around or greater than average
- Precipitation: There is likely to be greater than or around average precipitation
- Temperature: Temperatures are likely to be milder than or around average
The report includes an assessment of the season so far based on the number of EuroTempest storm alerts. Alert thresholds are based on a EuroTempest ‘severity’ index with the result that the number of alerts issued provides a measure of a season’s storminess.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
This report will be updated in December and again in January.
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