Eurotempest has issued its first UK seasonal weather forecast for the winter period. The summary assessment covers the next three months: November, December and January (NDJ) 2017-18.
UK NDJ 2017-18 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
- There is some consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average precipitation for the UK NDJ 2017-18.
- However, some current climate signals suggest that a drier than average period remains a distinct possibility.
UK NDJ 2017-18 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
- There is consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average temperature for the UK NDJ 2017-18.
- However, as with the precipitation outlook, some current climate signals suggest that a colder than average period remains a distinct possibility.
In summary, the evidence as a whole from the numerical weather prediction models suggests that a period of average or above average precipitation and temperature is the more likely outcome. However, current climate signals do not provide a strong indication of likely weather for the next three months as arguably two of the most influential signals (North Atlantic SST and Eurasian snow and Arctic sea ice cover) are pointing towards contradictory outcomes. While the other signals do have shorter term and/or a weaker influence on UK weather on a seasonal timescale, each one is currently in a phase associated with drier and colder UK weather. Therefore, current climate signals suggest that a colder/drier than average period remains a possibility.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
Download EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast
Eight different Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model-derived seasonal forecasts have been compared. All NWP forecasts assessed are produced by UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated global producing centers for long-range forecasts. The assessment also includes a summary of current climate signals for the UK.
Updated assessments will be issued twice more through the course of the autumn/winter: in early December and again in early January.
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