EuroTempest has issued its third and final assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM) 2019. The report also compares the season so far with average storm conditions experienced over the last 11 years.
There remains some consistency across seasonal forecast models towards a milder and wetter than average JFM 2019 in terms of the 3-month average. However, many of the climate signals, which provide a stronger indication of weather patterns in the shorter term, indicate the potential for the development of blocked weather patterns, which could result in extended periods (a few days up to a week or so) of calmer but colder conditions across the UK during JFM 2019. Despite these differences, the available information suggests:
- Storms: While there is no clearly dominant signal overall, the frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to be around average over the three month period. There is some indication of a lower than average frequency throughout January and into the beginning of February.
- Precipitation: There is most likely to be around or potentially greater than average precipitation. However, some climate signals and weather models indicate the potential for some extended dry periods, particularly across northern parts of the UK.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be around or potentially milder than the long-term climatological average. However, some climate signals and weather models currently indicate the potential for some extended cold periods, particularly towards the end of January.
The report also includes an assessment of the season so far, based on the number of days each month where potentially damaging winds have been experienced widely across the UK. The October to December period has been characterised by an around average number of windy days in the context of the last 11 years.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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