Eurotempest has issued its third and final UK seasonal weather forecast for the winter period. The summary assessment covers the next three months: January, February and March (JFM) 2018.
UK JFM 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
- There is some consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average precipitation for the UK JFM 2018.
- The current climate signals suggest an increased likelihood of periods of above average precipitation for the UK during JFM 2018.
UK JFM 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
- There is consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average temperature for the UK JFM 2018.
- Similar to the precipitation outlook, the current climate signals suggest that periods of milder than average temperature are more likely than below average for the UK during JFM 2018.
In summary, the most likely outcome for the January, February, March 2018 period is for there to be an increased likelihood of periods of milder and wetter weather than average. Therefore the 3 month period as a whole is most likely to have average or above average precipitation and temperature, although the colder and drier conditions cannot be completely ruled out. This is a similar pattern to that seen last winter across the UK as well as to what was indicated in the last EuroTempest seasonal forecast for DJF 2017-18.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
Eight different Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model-derived seasonal forecasts have been compared. All NWP forecasts assessed are produced by UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated global producing centers for long-range forecasts. The assessment also includes a summary of current climate signals for the UK.
This is the last assessment for the winter period. Our next seasonal forecast will be issued in November 2018,
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