EuroTempest has issued its fourth assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF).
The general indication from forecast models and current climate signals is that a relatively mild and wet December-February is likely.
- Storms: Indications are that the frequency of storms moving into the UK from the North Atlantic will most likely be around or above average during the three-month period.
- Precipitation: UK precipitation totals will most likely be around or higher than the long-term seasonal average.
- Temperature: UK temperatures will most likely be warmer than the long-term seasonal average.
- Long-range models: Numerical Weather Prediction models strongly favour above average temperatures and generally favour above average precipitation totals.
- Climate Signals: There are few dominant climate signals (e.g. ENSO is neutral) but the North Atlantic is relatively warm in the vicinity of the UK and the QBO is in a state consistent with an increased chance of mild, wet and stormy weather. However, some climate signals now suggest an increasing possibility of a cold and dry period from the New Year onwards..
Looking back at the season so far, the number of ‘windy days’ is lower than what would be expected for an average September to November period. However, the season has been very wet, the wettest for nearly 20 years (since autumn 2000). Rainfall totals for England and Wales were over 50% higher than the long-term average in each of the autumn months (September, October and November). It is yet to be officially confirmed but early indications are that there have been just four wetter autumns than 2019 in England and Wales since 1766.
Looking forwards the weather models and some climate signals suggest that the next few weeks will likely be characterised by increasingly unsettled conditions. Indications are that the AO and the NAO are most likely to move into and then remain in a positive phase. These signals are consistent with an increased likelihood of wet and windy UK weather compared to recent more settled conditions. The last few weeks of December are likely to start unsettled. Though there is a steadily increasing chance of an extended period of cold weather from around the beginning of January, a mild and wet period is still the most likely outcome.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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