EuroTempest has issued its second assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period across the UK. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF) 2018-19. The report also compares the season so far with average storm conditions experienced over the last 11 years.
The winter season 2018-19 has continued to be characterised by periods of unsettled weather, despite a calmer period in mid-November.
Looking ahead, there remains some consistency across seasonal forecast models towards the dominance of a westerly airflow pattern during DJF 2018-19. However there is slightly less consistency between current climate signals . Despite this, the available information suggests:
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is likely to be around or potentially greater than average. In general, a season with a lower frequency of storms is less likely than one with an around or greater than average frequency
- Precipitation: There is likely to be around or greater than average precipitation. A season characterised by lower than average precipitation is much less likely than a season with around or above average precipitation
- Temperature: Temperatures are likely to be milder than or around average. A season characterised by temperatures lower than the climatological average is much less likely than a season with above or around average temperatures
The report also includes an assessment of the season so far, based on the number of days each month where potentially damaging winds have been experienced widely across the UK. So far this season, October and November have been characterised by an around average number of windy days in the context of the last 11 years.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
This report will be updated in January.
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