Eurotempest has issued its second UK seasonal weather forecast for the winter period. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF) 2017-18.
UK DJF 2017-18 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
- There is some consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average precipitation for the UK DJF 2017-18.
- The current climate signals suggest the likelihood of a drier than average December followed by wetter conditions during the beginning of next year.
UK DJF 2017-18 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
- There is consistency across the seasonal forecast models considered towards average or above average temperature for the UK DJF 2017-18.
- Similar to the precipitation outlook, the current climate signals suggest the likelihood of a colder than average December shifting to milder conditions during January and February.
In summary, there is some suggestion from current climate signals of an increased chance of below average precipitation and temperature during December with a switch to an increased chance of warmer and wetter weather during the first two months of next year. This is consistent with the suggestion from the seasonal forecast models of an average to above average 3-month period for temperature and rainfall overall.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
Eight different Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model-derived seasonal forecasts have been compared. All NWP forecasts assessed are produced by UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated global producing centers for long-range forecasts. The assessment also includes a summary of current climate signals for the UK.
Updated assessments will be issued once more through the course of the winter: in early January.
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