TSR predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 will be very active with activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and around 50% above the long-term 1950-2023 norm. This outlook has large uncertainties.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 anticipates a season with high activity. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2024 and employs data through to the end of November 2023.
TSR uses the forecast August-September sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (10º-20ºN, 60º-20ºW) and the forecast July-September Caribbean trade wind anomaly over the region 7.5º-17.5ºN, 100º-30ºW as predictors. The former is forecast to be warmer than average leading to an enhancement of Atlantic hurricane activity, and the latter is predicted to be weaker than normal due to predicted neat neutral ENSO conditions and above average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea.
This forecast has high uncertainty due to uncertainty in how warm the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea sea surface temperatures will be in August-September 2024 and by how much this will influence the strength of the Caribbean trade winds.
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