TSR predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 will be very active with activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and around 50% above the long-term 1950-2023 norm. This outlook has large uncertainties.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 anticipates a season with high activity. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2024 and employs data through to the end of November 2023.
TSR uses the forecast August-September sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (10º-20ºN, 60º-20ºW) and the forecast July-September Caribbean trade wind anomaly over the region 7.5º-17.5ºN, 100º-30ºW as predictors. The former is forecast to be warmer than average leading to an enhancement of Atlantic hurricane activity, and the latter is predicted to be weaker than normal due to predicted neat neutral ENSO conditions and above average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea.
This forecast has high uncertainty due to uncertainty in how warm the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea sea surface temperatures will be in August-September 2024 and by how much this will influence the strength of the Caribbean trade winds.
Read the full report here.
TSR, delivered by EuroTempest, has been providing alerts and forecasts for the insurance, humanitarian, energy, finance and maritime sectors since 2000. Using proprietary algorithms, TSR produces real-time forecast and post-event footprints for major events around the world, with unrivalled accuracy.
EuroTempest is the leading provider in Europe of weather risk management services. Our customers across Europe and in the US include some of the largest (re)insurers, brokers and cat modelling agencies. These companies use our services and data to get better prepared for events as they develop and for improving their understanding of the weather risks they face.
For more information about EuroTempest’s services, please email nick.wood@eurotempest.com. And if you would like to subscribe to our free weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, weather news or product updates please visit our subscription page.