Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has issued an alert for Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which since its formation on 6th February just South of Indonesia, has become the longest-lived storm in the Southern Indian Basin in over 20 years.

The storm, which has been tracking almost due west since the beginning of the month, has undergone fluctuations in intensity and has recently increased to a top end category four cyclone (Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale) with peak winds at around 135 knots (155 mph).

Given the strength and longevity of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, it will likely set the record for ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the Southern Indian Basin.

The cyclone continues to head west and in the coming days is likely to pass close to Mauritius and Reunion, still at category four intensity, before a possible landfall in Madagascar, which was hit by cyclone Chesno last month.

Given its energy and unusual track, catastrophe analysts and climate scientists will need to look closely at this event to see if their models are accurately representing activity in the Southern Hemisphere.

Adam Lea, Head of Tropical Storm Risk, said “This is a very unusual event.  Cyclones in the southern hemisphere typically turn south and dissipate over cool water. The only other storm in NOAA’s database to make the journey from Indonesia to Madagascar was Eline/Leone (2000), the basin’s longest-lived storm.”

TSR, delivered by EuroTempest, has been providing alerts and forecasts for the insurance, humanitarian, energy, finance and maritime sectors since 2000. Using proprietary algorithms, TSR produces real-time forecast and post-event footprints for major events around the world, with unrivalled accuracy.

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