EuroTempest has issued its summary assessment of seasonal forecasts for Europe for November 2023 to January 2024.
The report suggests an enhanced likelihood of wetter than average conditions across Europe overall for November, December, and January, but of lighter than normal westerly winds across northern Europe and Scandinavia.
Current climate signals and historical analogues do not provide any particularly strong or
unambiguous indications regarding the likelihood of significant windstorm activity.
Seasonal forecast models are broadly consistent in suggesting an enhanced likelihood of above
average precipitation totals across the whole of Europe. Some (but not all) climate signals, such
as the prevailing El Niño and the much warmer than normal Atlantic sea temperatures, are
consistent with this.
Temperatures are still likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across
Europe; however, there are indications from seasonal forecast models that temperatures could
be cooler than they have been in recent years. This is reasonably consistent with the indication
from some climate signals that colder conditions (than in recent winters) could become more
likely from the end of the year.
Seasonal forecast models suggest an increased likelihood of weaker than normal westerly
winds over northern Europe and Scandinavia and stronger than normal westerly winds over
This report is an early indication of weather conditions across Europe during Nov 2023 – Jan
2024. The next EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast Assessment will be issued for the 2023-24
winter season in December 2023.
Download the full report here.
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