EuroTempest’s first Subsidence Risk Assessment indicates that, due to above-average rainfall in the early months, the overall outlook for subsidence claims in the UK is expected to be around or below average for the year.
Using South-East England as a representative for the UK’s conditions, we have seen the wettest February on record, contributing to the fifth wettest January-to-April period historically. While forecasts suggest a higher likelihood of continued wet conditions over the next three months, the possibility of drier periods cannot be entirely dismissed.
In terms of insurance claims, years with similar early rainfall patterns, such as 2001, 2014, 2016, 2020, and 2023, have typically seen average or below-average subsidence claims. However, the report notes that a prolonged, exceptionally dry spell during the summer months, such as those seen in 2018, could still lead to an increase in claims despite the wet start to the year.
Read the full report here.
This is the first of four Subsidence Risk Assessments published for 2024. Subscribe to our free ‘Seasonal Forecasts’ to receive monthly updates on future Subsidence Risk Assessments and European Seasonal Forecasts.
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