Northwest Pacific 2023 Typhoon Season – 30% Below the Norm

The TSR early May seasonal forecast for Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2023 anticipates a season with above-norm activity. TSR uses the strong link between the annual Northwest Pacific ACE index and August-September-October (ASO) ENSO combined with the increasing expectation that moderate or strong El Niño conditions will develop and persist through ASO 2023. Key findings from the report are:

• An ACE index of 394 which compares to the 1991 – 2020 climatology of 301
• A 74% likelihood that Northwest Pacific ACE in 2023 will be above the 1991-2020 30-year norm, and a 60% chance it will be in the upper tercile of years 1991-2020.
• 13 intense typhoons, 19 typhoons and 29 tropical storms

Note that sizeable uncertainties remain and the forecast skill at this range is historically low.

To read the full report click here. The next TSR forecast update for the 2023 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be on Thursday 6th July, 2023.

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