The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) pre-season forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 anticipates a season with below normal activity. The update backs its previous forecast released in early April, continuing to predict that hurricane activity in 2023 will be around 25% below the 1991-2020 30-year norm.
Although large uncertainties remain at the pre-season forecast range, it is likely that tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters will be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2023, and moderate or strong El Niño conditions will develop and persist into the autumn, thereby contributing to enhanced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and enhance vertical wind shear.
The combined effect of these environmental factors is expected to suppress North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023, with a forecast of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes of which 2 are expected to be Category 3 or above.
Adam Lea, Head of Tropical Storm Risk, said: “There remains considerable uncertainty at this timescale, but the current forecast indicates a quieter than average North Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions are expected in the second half of the hurricane season which are known to reduce the potency and impact as hurricanes develop and track westward across the North Atlantic and Caribbean.”
TSR, delivered by EuroTempest, has been providing alerts and forecasts for the insurance, humanitarian, energy, finance and maritime sectors since 2000. Using proprietary algorithms, TSR produces real-time forecast and post-event footprints for major events around the world, with unrivalled accuracy.
For more information about TSR, please visit – https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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