TSR raises its pre-season forecast issued in late May and predicts North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 will be close to the 1991-2020 30-year norm. However, uncertainties
remain and the forecast skill at this range is moderate.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) July forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 raises its forecast and now anticipates a season with activity close to the 1991-2020 climate norm.
Although uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2023, and for moderate El Niño conditions to persist through August-September 2023 and into the autumn.
Both these factors are expected to enhance North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023. These two factors have opposing influences on the Atlantic hurricane season, however we anticipate the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will partially override the increased vertical wind shear and trade wind strength normally present during El Niño.
An additional factor favouring high activity in 2023 than anticipated in late May is the development of two tropical storms in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) in June, which is exceptional and implies the tropical Atlantic has become favourable for development much earlier than normal.
Read the full report on the TSR website here – https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJuly2023.pdf
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