The extended range 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk suggests a season near long-term climatology rather than dramatically above average. TSR’s extended range outlook points to 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes for the June–November period. The forecast also expects an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index close to 129, in line with the 1991–2020 30-year norm.
TSR’s prediction reflects a mix of factors that could both enhance and restrain tropical activity. Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may fuel storm formation. At the same time, forecast wind patterns and atmospheric variability introduce significant uncertainty at this lead time. Read our full report here.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast highlights that activity is likely comparable to what we see on average, even if environmental conditions fluctuate. This nuanced view reminds planners and risk managers that “normal” does not mean inactive — storms can still intensify rapidly and cluster in active periods.
Understanding the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast early helps insurers, emergency planners, and scientists prepare for a season where both frequency and intensity could vary widely from month to month.