This is the second assessment that EuroTempest has issued this season. These assessments will be updated once more during the course of the winter, in early January. This summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF) 2016-17.
UK DJF 2016-17 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
- There is an indication of some consistency across the seasonal forecasts models considered towards average or above average temperature for the UK DJF 2016-17
- However, climate signals indicate that there is an increased probability of blocking patterns developing during the 3-months especially during December which would result in below average temperatures at times
UK DJF 2016-17 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
- There is no consistent indication across the seasonal forecast models towards any particular pattern for UK precipitation for the UK DJF 2016-17 though there is a slight indication that an average or wetter than average winter is more likely than a drier than average one.
- Climate signals indicate that there is an increased probability of blocking patterns developing, which would make drier than average conditions more likely for the UK. However there are signs it could become more unsettled and wetter later in the winter
The climate signals suggest that during the start of the outlook period there is an increased chance of colder and drier conditions. Similar climate signals then suggest that later in the period, particularly in February there is the increased possibility of milder and wetter conditions. These contrasting periods help to explain why there is currently no strong consistency between the 3-monthly averages for the whole of the DJF 2016-17 period.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below
The eight agencies considered are: UK Met Office (UKMO), The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Climate Forecast System (CFS), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Météo-France (Météo-France), South African Weather Services (SAWS), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and APEC Climate Center (APCC)
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