EuroTempest has issued its third assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.

  • Storms: Some climate signals and historical analogues suggest that there is an enhanced likelihood of stormier than average conditions across northern Europe and Scandinavia, particularly from January onwards. However, the historical analogues to this month are not particularly close – there are no Novembers in the recent (40-year) historical record that match the phase of all three of ENSO, QBO and Atlantic SSTs at the end of this November.
  • Precipitation: Long range forecast models and climate signals suggest a slightly enhanced likelihood of below average precipitation totals across northern Europe. Indications are more mixed for Scandinavia and southern Europe where there is less consensus between models and climate signals.
  • Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.

There are some indications of an enhanced likelihood of stormy conditions at times but of drier than average conditions overall for December, January and February. These indications are not conclusive as climate signals in particular are currently providing conflicting indications or few close historical analogues. Seasonal forecast models are however consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe.

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