EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: October, November and December (OND). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
- Storms: Long range forecast models and climate signals suggest that there is no notably enhanced likelihood either way of stormier or calmer than average conditions across northern Europe during the last three months of 2022 as a whole, although they do suggest that calmer than average conditions are more likely than average during much of November.
- Precipitation: Long range forecast models suggest an enhanced likelihood of above average precipitation totals across Scandinavia and below average totals across southern Europe.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
There are currently no indications of any particularly unusual or extreme weather during the end of October and into November but some unsettled, wet and windy conditions are likely at times across western Europe and Scandinavia. More settled conditions are likely further east. More settled, drier and colder conditions look to become more likely across northern Europe and Scandinavia from early November, with warmer conditions more likely across southern Europe.
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