EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: October, November and December (OND). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently. The reference years found suggest that a below average storm season is less likely than normal, especially for northern Europe.
Seasonal forecast models and climate signals suggest October to December 2021 as a whole is most likely to be milder than average across the whole of Europe. There is no clear consensus for precipitation, however there are some indications that northern Europe and Scandinavia could be drier than average and southern Europe wetter than average.
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to be generally above average for northern Europe and Scandinavia and slightly above average for southern Europe, especially towards the end of the period.
- Precipitation: There is no clear consensus across the forecast models and climate signals for precipitation across Europe although below average precipitation is slightly more favourable across northern Europe and Scandinavia and above average across southern Europe, especially later in the period.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
- Analogue Years: This analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently. The reference years found suggest that a below average storm season is less likely than normal, especially for northern Europe.
There is currently the potential for some spells of wet and windy weather across northern Europe and parts of southern Europe during the next few weeks. From early November settled conditions are currently expected to become more likely with drier and chillier conditions possible across Scandinavia and much of northern Europe and warmer conditions across southern Europe.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of UK weather conditions, click on the link below:
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