EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period. Unlike previous years this report now covers Europe, broken down by the main regions where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: October, November and December 2020.
Seasonal forecast models and climate signals suggest October-December 2020 is most likely to be milder and wetter than average across Scandinavia and drier than average across southern Europe.
- Storms: While there is no dominant signal for northern Europe, the frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to be above average for Scandinavia and below average for southern Europe, especially towards the end of the period.
- Precipitation: Precipitation is most likely to be above average across Scandinavia and below average across southern Europe, with no dominant signal for northern Europe.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be around or milder than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
- Long-range models: Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest October-December 2020 will most likely be wetter than average across Scandinavia and drier than average across southern Europe, with no dominant signal for northern Europe.
- Climate Signals: Climate signals suggest there may be slightly more potential for milder, wetter and windier conditions across northern Europe and Scandinavia towards the end of the 3 month period than towards the beginning.
Weather models and some climate signals suggest that the next week or so will be characterised by conditions gradually turning drier and warmer across much of Europe with the possible exception of the south-west. From mid to late October conditions are likely to be drier and cooler than average across much of northern Europe with milder and wetter conditions across southern Europe.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of European weather conditions, click on the link below:
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