EuroTempest has issued its second assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: November, December and January (NDJ). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
There are some indications of an increased likelihood of lower than average European windstorm activity for Nov 2021 to Jan 2022. These indications are relatively weak as many climate models and observable climate signals are currently largely neutral and generally not producing any dominant signal in this regard. Seasonal forecast models are however consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe.
- Storms: There are some indications, primarily from observable climate signals, that an active and impactful northern European windstorm season is slightly less likely than normal. However, many models and signals are neutral or providing no dominant signal and the possibility of a significant windstorm or active season is not precluded.
- Precipitation: Observable climate signals suggest a slightly increased likelihood of below average seasonal precipitation totals across northern Europe and Scandinavia and above average totals across southern Europe. There is generally no consensus or dominant outcome for precipitation across any of the forecast models though some suggest an increased likelihood of above average precipitation across Scandinavia.
- Temperature: Seasonal forecast models are consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe. There are some indications from climate signals of a slightly increased likelihood of cooler conditions across northern Europe and Scandinavia and warmer conditions across southern Europe.
- Analogue Years: Years in the historical record in which climate signals have been in a similar pattern to that currently prevailing were characterised by calmer conditions slightly more often than they were by active or impactful windstorm events.
Some unsettled conditions are possible this week and next, mostly across southern Europe and Scandinavia, though conditions generally are expected to remain largely settled, particularly across northern Europe. From early December settled conditions are expected to become increasingly likely with drier and chillier conditions possible across Scandinavia and much of northern Europe.
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