EuroTempest has issued its third assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF). This assessment includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.
There are some indications of a slightly increased likelihood of above average European windstorm activity for Dec 2021 to Feb 2022 as a whole (though relatively settled conditions are likely for at least the next few weeks). Indications for the season are relatively weak as many climate models and observable climate signals are generally not producing a strongly dominant signal in this regard. Seasonal forecast models are however consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe.
- Storms: There are some indications, primarily from current observable climate signals and historical analogue seasons, that an active and impactful northern European windstorm season is slightly more likely than normal. However, many models and signals are providing no dominant signal or have opposing influences and relatively settled conditions are likely for at least the next few weeks.
- Precipitation: Climate models suggest a slightly increased likelihood of above average seasonal precipitation totals across Scandinavia and below average totals across southern Europe, with no consensus or dominant outcome for northern Europe. Several climate signals currently have opposing influences and as such are providing no dominant signal though there are some indications of a wetter than average season further to the north.
- Temperature: Seasonal forecast models are consistent in suggesting that the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across the whole of Europe. There are some indications from climate signals of an increased chance (though not a likelihood) of a spell of cold weather across northern Europe within the first few months of next year.
- Analogue Years: Years in the historical record in which climate signals have been in a similar pattern to that currently prevailing were characterised by relatively stormy conditions and produced some notable windstorms.
Largely settled conditions are most likely across northern Europe and Scandinavia over the next few weeks but occurrences of wetter and more unsettled conditions are likely to continue across southern Europe. The split between calmer conditions in northern Europe and more unsettled conditions in the south is likely to persist into the first half of January. There are some indications that this pattern will gradually begin to break down through this period, leading to a steadily increasing chance of wet and windy conditions in the north.
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