EuroTempest has issued its third assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the autumn and winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: December, January and February (DJF). This assessment again includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis has looked at periods, termed analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently. Based on climate signals throughout November the most appropriate analogue for this coming winter is the winter of 1999/2000. This suggests that both the number of windstorms and the maximum storm severity index for this winter is unlikely to be below average.
Seasonal forecast models and climate signals suggest December to February 2020/21 as a whole is most likely to be milder than average across the whole of Europe. A north south split for precipitation is indicated with Scandinavia most likely to be wetter than average and southern Europe drier than average.
- Storms: The frequency of storms moving in from the North Atlantic is most likely to increase and be above average for northern Europe and Scandinavia and below average for southern Europe, especially towards the end of the period.
- Precipitation: Precipitation is most likely to be above average across Scandinavia and below average across southern Europe. There is no clear consensus across the forecast models and climate signals for precipitation across northern Europe for this period.
- Temperature: Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe.
- Climate Signals: The potential for milder, wetter and windier conditions across northern regions of Europe (including Scandinavia) may increase as the next three months progress.
There is currently no strong signal in the weather models and climate signals for any dominant weather pattern to develop during the next few weeks, especially across northern and southern Europe. However, from January conditions are likely to become more unsettled with milder and wetter conditions more likely across much of northern Europe and drier and warmer conditions across southern Europe.
To read the full report, which explains some of the factors that may influence the next 3 months of European weather conditions, click on the link below:
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