EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected. The summary assessment covers the next three months: October, November, December (OND) and includes results from an analysis of climate drivers from previous years. The analysis looks at analogue years, when climate signals have shown a similar pattern to those exhibited currently.

There are indications, particularly from seasonal forecast models, of an enhanced likelihood of wetter and windier conditions across Scandinavia and drier and calmer conditions across southern Europe. Outcomes for northern Europe are more unclear.

  • Storm Events – The closest analogue years to this year had around or above average numbers of notable events.
  • Westerly Wind – Seasonal forecast models and some climate signals suggest an increased likelihood of stronger than normal westerly winds over Scandinavia and weaker than normal westerly winds over southern Europe. The signal for northern Europe is less clear, depending on the placement of the dividing line between these two regions.
  • Precipitation – Seasonal forecast models are broadly consistent in suggesting an enhanced likelihood of above average precipitation totals across Scandinavia and below average precipitation across southern Europe.
  • Temperature – Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across Europe. There is some disagreement between climate signals and forecast models, with analogue years suggesting the potential for below average temperatures across southern Europe, especially the south-west.

The next EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast Assessment for the 2024-25 winter season will be issued in November 2024.

Read the full report here.

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