EuroTempest has issued its first assessment of seasonal weather forecasts and climate signals for the winter period, broken down by the main regions across Europe where differences can be detected.
There are indications, particularly from seasonal forecast models, of an enhanced likelihood of
wetter than average conditions across Europe overall for October, November and December,
but of lighter than normal westerly winds across northern Europe and Scandinavia.
Current climate signals and historical analogues do not provide any particularly strong or
unambiguous indications regarding the likelihood of significant windstorm activity. Although
there is some evidence that there may be a lower than normal likelihood of a notable European
windstorm event before the end of the year, such an event cannot be ruled out.
Seasonal forecast models are broadly consistent in suggesting an enhanced likelihood of above
average precipitation totals across the whole of Europe. Some (but not all) climate signals, such
as the prevailing El Niño and the much warmer than normal Atlantic sea temperatures, are
consistent with this.
Temperatures are most likely to be warmer than the long-term climatological average across
Europe. There is some indication from climate signals that colder conditions could become
more likely towards the end of the year.
Seasonal forecast models suggest an increased likelihood of weaker than normal westerly
winds over northern Europe and Scandinavia.
This report is an early indication of weather conditions across Europe during Oct – Dec 2023.
The next EuroTempest Seasonal Forecast Assessment will be issued for the 2023-24 winter
season in November 2023.
Download the full seasonal forecast for October here.
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