August Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2023

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) August forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 raises its forecast and now anticipates a season with activity around 10% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.

Although significant uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2023, and for moderate El Niño conditions to persist through August-September 2023 and into the autumn.

These two factors are expected to have opposing influences on the Atlantic hurricane season, however we anticipate the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will override the increased vertical wind shear and trade wind strength normally present during El Niño.

Read the full report at:

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2023-08-09T14:55:26+00:00August 9th, 2023|
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