The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) early August forecast for Northwest Pacific typhoon activity in 2023 continues to anticipate a season with above-norm activity.
TSR uses the strong link between the annual Northwest Pacific ACE index and August-September-October (ASO) ENSO combined with the expectation that the developing moderate El Niño will persist through ASO 2023.
Although some uncertainties remain and the forecast skill at this range is historically moderate to good, TSR anticipates there is a 90% likelihood that Northwest Pacific ACE in 2023 will be above the 1991-2020 30-year norm and anticipates there is a 79% chance Northwest Pacific ACE in 2023 will be in the upper tercile of years 1991-2020.
Read the full report at: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastAugust2023.pdf
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