The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk projects a season with activity close to the 1991 – 2020 climate average, though uncertainty remains high at this lead time.
TSR anticipates 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in 2026. The forecast’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is 125, comparable with long-term norms. These numbers reflect drivers such as above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and slightly weaker Caribbean trade winds. Conditions like warm-neutral ENSO may also boost activity, but the potential development of El Niño adds uncertainty. Read the full report here.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast offers valuable early insight for risk managers, insurers, and emergency planners. It suggests that while total storm counts may stay near average, the chance of intense storms remains significant, much like in 2025. The forecast also highlights a ~32% probability of ACE exceeding the upper tercile.
TSR will update this outlook in April 2026 as atmospheric and oceanic conditions evolve nearer the start of the season. Sign up here to recieve our free seasonal forecasts.